2024 NFL mock draft Scouts predict the top 10 picks

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You're going to see a lot of mock drafts over the next week, as everyone gears up for the 2024 NFL draft. My final set of projections drops next Wednesday. But did you know NFL teams do their own mocks, assigning staffers to rival teams in Round 1 and trying to project what could happen at each slot in preparation? That gave us an idea.

I asked 10 anonymous scouts from around the league to each serve as the decision-maker for a team picking in the top 10, letting them make the pick based on that roster's needs and how they evaluate this intriguing class. A couple of rules:

The scouts are unaffiliated with the teams they were assigned here. In fact, none work for a franchise even in the same division as the one they were assigned, and in most cases, we gave them a team from the other conference. They were asked make their selections based on how they'd approach that pick and who was already off the board. Because the scouts are all anonymous and did not collaborate on the exercise, we didn't allow any trades. So while many mock drafts might have the Vikings jumping up the board for a QB, no picks changed hands here.

Here is how things played out in the top 10, starting with an evaluator from the NFC East making the call for the Bears at No. 1 overall:

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1. Chicago Bears (via CAR)

Projected pick from an NFC East area scout: Caleb Williams, QB, USC

No surprises here -- scouts agree with consensus that the Bears should and ultimately will select Williams, my No. 1 overall prospect in this class, to begin the draft.

"He's too dynamic, too poised and too talented to pass up," said our guest picker out of the NFC East, a scout who has studied the entire QB class.

Williams seems like a lock at No. 1 after throwing 93 touchdown passes and rushing for 27 more scores over three college seasons. The 2023 Heisman Trophy is the total package, and I like to compare him to Aaron Rodgers. At 6-foot-1 and 214 pounds, Williams shows excellent arm strength, running ability and field vision. He'd immediately have a great supporting cast with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Cole Kmet, too.

"Caleb is the most likely player in this class to become a Hall of Famer," the scout said. "That's the dude I want."

2. Washington Commanders

Projected pick from an AFC national scout: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Here's the first surprise of the mini-mock, with our scout assigned to the No. 2 pick opting for Maye over LSU's Jayden Daniels. Maye is No. 9 on my board, while Daniels is No. 5 overall.

"Maye has more upside," said the scout. "I question Daniels' ability to play in condensed spaces."

Another consideration for the scout making the pick? Maye's ability to make throws with pressure in his face and absorb the impact of free pass-rushers in the North Carolina passing game. He threw 10 touchdown passes (tied for seventh in the nation) when pressured in 2023. Maye (6-foot-4, 223 pounds) is often compared to Justin Herbert, and his vertical passing ability would no doubt fit well with wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson in Washington.

3. New England Patriots

Projected pick from an NFC South area scout: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

With two quarterbacks off the board, the decision was easy for our stand-in Pats GM: "The other guys really left me without a choice, but this is who we wanted outside of Caleb [Williams] anyway."

Daniels (6-foot-4, 210 pounds) is coming off a Heisman Trophy-winning season that saw him throw 40 passing touchdowns and run for 10. He completed 72.2% of his passes and led the nation in QBR at 95.6. And his deep-ball passing and rushing ability are special traits.

"We're sprinting to the podium with this pick," the scout said. "He's a true playmaker and can beat you with his arm and his legs."

4. Arizona Cardinals

Projected pick from an AFC East area scout: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

"Fastest pick ever," said our scout picking for the Cardinals. "With Paris Johnson Jr. and adding Jonah Williams [to the offensive line], time to get a top-tier wide receiver for Kyler Murray."

Harrison is a popular selection for the Cardinals in mock drafts thanks to his pro readiness and high-end positional traits. And because we aren't allowing trades, the Cardinals can't take calls from the Vikings or Giants if either wanted to move up for a QB -- but the AFC East scout wasn't interested in moving back anyway. "We're not answering the phone. MHJ is exactly what this team needs."

He's not wrong. At 6-foot-3 and 209 pounds, Harrison shows elite body control, speed and instincts, helping him to 67 catches for 1,211 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. And Arizona currently has 2023 third-rounder Michael Wilson listed atop its wide receiver depth chart.

5. Los Angeles Chargers

Projected pick from a former AFC scouting director: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

A reminder that trades weren't allowed here, so our Chargers decision-maker had to stay put at No. 5 rather than seek offers from QB-needy teams targeting Michigan signal-caller J.J. McCarthy. That made it a question of receiver or offensive line for L.A.

"I think building the trenches is smarter with the talent stacks in this draft," said our fifth scout of the exercise. "Get a tackle now, a wide receiver in Round 2 and a cornerback in Round 3. That's how you win this draft -- checking off premium positions of need in every round."

Alt is No. 6 on my board and the clear OT1. The 33-game starter has power, length and agility at left tackle, and he allowed just two sacks over the past two seasons. The drop-off in talent from Alt (6-foot-9, 321 pounds) to the next best tackle is notable compared to the talent drop-off at wide receiver. And the AFC scouting director we put in charge of the Chargers even had a dream scenario.

"We can get a starting-level wide receiver in Round 2," he said. "Imagine leaving the first two rounds with Alt and [South Carolina receiver] Xavier Legette?"

6. New York Giants

Projected pick from an AFC North area scout: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

With Daniel Jones coming back from a torn ACL, the Giants could shake things up here with McCarthy, but the AFC North scout who took on the Giants for this exercise decided to go a different direction.

"Only minor consideration to J.J. here given the importance of the position and the team's need, but it's ultimately just too rich for me considering the top-end potential still on the board," the evaluator said.

Instead, the Giants go with an elite playmaker for their struggling offense. New York hasn't had a 1,000-yard receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. in 2018, but Nabers can be its next. He is a great route runner who totaled 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. He also accelerates well and is physical at 6-foot and 199 pounds.

"Nabers is a special mover that will give New York a bona fide No. 1 and will immediately make life easier for whomever is throwing the ball this season," the scout said.

7. Tennessee Titans

Projected pick from an NFC West area scout: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Explaining the pick, this scout said, "I wanted a tackle here, but with Alt off the board, it's too rich to reach for [Penn State's Olumuyiwa] Fashanu, and drafting a right tackle doesn't help them. So this is a little best player available but also a need."

Odunze (6-foot-3, 212 pounds) is my No. 3-ranked player in the class and a fantastic value at this spot. He's physical and wins on 50-50 balls, and he finished last season with 1,640 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns.

This scenario seems realistic if the Chargers opt to take Alt off the board at No. 5, and it'd be a tough decision for the Titans, who do need a left tackle. Our scout handled it by getting the top player on the board to fill a future need at wide receiver -- DeAndre Hopkins is almost 32, and Calvin Ridley turns 30 this season -- and waiting on the offensive line.

"We would definitely be on the phone trying to trade out if this is how the board ran ... and it really could depend on how desperate the Vikings get [to move up]."

8. Atlanta Falcons

Projected pick from an AFC South area scout: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

I didn't see this one coming. Everyone -- including myself -- has been projecting Alabama defensive end Dallas Turner to the Falcons at No. 8, and he remains on the board here. But our replacement general manager had a very different strategy.

"Mitchell is the best cornerback in the class and honestly a harder position to fill," the scout explained. "Also, think about this: Young defensive ends rarely make a huge impact early on. It's rare to get 10 sacks from a rookie. But a rookie cornerback can come in and be an All-Pro."

The Falcons have two clearly defined top needs at defensive end and cornerback. Addressing CB at No. 8 and grabbing a pass-rusher in Round 2 is certainly a real strategy. Sure, Turner had 10 sacks last season, but Mitchell had six interceptions and 32 pass breakups over the past two seasons. At 6-foot and 195 pounds, he can be a shutdown cornerback in the NFL.

"Mitchell at 8 and then someone like [Washington's] Bralen Trice in Round 2 is how we stack the board and get two studs."

9. Chicago Bears

Projected pick from an AFC South area scout: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

The Bears face a board with the top three wide receivers gone and don't have the possibility of trading back here, even if there would be plenty of trade offers for this pick if McCarthy was actually still on the board. The scout making this pick instead lands, in their opinion, the best impact defender in the class.

The evaluator said, "Murphy is a legitimate game-changer who is just scratching the surface of his talent. We can't believe he's still available. Murphy on the inside and Montez Sweat on the edge will wreck things for offenses. And look at how much interior defensive tackles are getting paid today? Murphy is a huge value on a rookie contract."

Defensive tackle is a sneaky need in Chicago, even after the team used Day 2 selections on Gervon Dexter Sr. and Zacch Pickens last April. But as the scout says, "Murphy is the perfect 3-tech for Matt Eberflus, and it's the one position the Bears haven't figured out on defense."

Murphy (6-foot-1, 297 pounds) has a quick first step and power, and he finished his final season at Texas with five sacks and 33 pressures despite not getting many opportunities to rush the passer from inside.

10. New York Jets

Projected pick from an NFC South area scout: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

The two most common scenarios talked about with the Jets at No. 10 are drafting a tackle of the future and taking an instant-impact offensive player such as Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. Our 10th and final scout in this exercise decided to plan for life after 2024 with the selection of Fuaga, even after the Jets traded for Morgan Moses and signed Tyron Smith. Both players are 33 years old.

"The two offensive tackles added this year can't be seen as more than Band-Aids, and there has to be insurance plans in case they're injured again," the scout said.

Insurance all over the offensive line is crucial, as right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker has already been banged up a ton in his career. Fuaga might not be a Day 1 starter in New York, but he could push Moses at right tackle and slide in on the interior if Vera-Tucker or left guard John Simpson were to miss time in 2024. He's a big, powerful run-blocker who stands out in space at 6-foot-6 and 324 pounds.

"With [Aaron] Rodgers returning and the weapons on offense set, we can't afford to ignore the offensive line for a third- or fourth-option pass-catcher," reasoned the evaluator.

My reaction to the scouts' picks

This was a chance to learn a lot about how evaluators truly see this class and how pressure to fill needs -- especially at quarterback -- influence what general managers will do. These scouts attacked core positions with their picks, including quarterback, wide receiver, offensive tackle, defensive tackle and cornerback. However, it's notable that none of our GMs drafted McCarthy, who is ranked No. 19 on my board but is also widely expected to be drafted in the top six. (No trades certainly impacted that.) 

Outside of McCarthy not being selected, Mitchell and Murphy making the top 10 were probably the biggest surprises for me. I'm a fan of Mitchell's game -- he is ranked No. 15 on my board -- but I wasn't expecting him at No. 8. And while Murphy is No. 13 overall for me, I haven't seen too many top-10 predictions on him. I was also a little surprised to see Turner not get picked anywhere here, considering he's seventh in my rankings. But this is the kind of stuff that makes the draft fun and unpredictable.